CorporateNature No 130
There are two types of unintended consequences:
1) The long tail of a probability distribution of outcomes, when the rare outcome happens to occur.
2) A chain of events that creates its own loop of consequences.
The previous CorporateNature blog post (No 129) was about some unintended consequences that occur in complex environments such as our human social systems, including the Peltzman Effect of risk-seeking behaviour when one is feeling safe.
1) The long tail of a probability distribution of outcomes, when the rare outcome happens to occur.
2) A chain of events that creates its own loop of consequences.
The previous CorporateNature blog post (No 129) was about some unintended consequences that occur in complex environments such as our human social systems, including the Peltzman Effect of risk-seeking behaviour when one is feeling safe.
Continuing this topic, here are three more examples of unintended consequences:
1. The Cobra Effect
The Cobra Effect is a case when an intended solution to a problem exacerbates the problem. The name "cobra effect" comes from a story from colonial India. To solve the problem of the large population of venomous snakes in Delhi, the British colonial government set a bounty for each dead cobra. At first this strategy was successful, as many snakes were killed for the reward. However, soon people started breeding cobras to profit from turning them in to the local government. The government eventually noticed it was being taken for a ride and scrapped the reward programme. This made breeders release the cobras they had been breeding into the wild, which led to an increase in the cobra population.
2. The Vietnam War & Grade Inflation
In the US, during the era of the Vietnam War in the 1960s, students with high grades were exempted from the draft for the war (conscription). This meant that giving someone a low grade could send someone to war, and possibly cost their life. As a result, professors became much more hesitant to give someone a C and gravitated towards handing out higher grades.
3. Potato PR
Potatoes were domesticated in South America some 10,000 years ago and were introduced to Europe after the voyages of Columbus. However, local European farmers and peasants did not take to them. Appreciating the nutritious potential of this new plant, Prussian king Frederick the Great came up with a public relations stunt to convince people that potatoes are worth it. He had his servants plant a field of potatoes and stationed a heavy guard tasked with pretending to be guarding the field. Naturally, the local peasants assumed that the crop on the king's land must be valuable and started to sneak into the field and steal potatoes for their own gardens. This had exactly been Frederick's intention and the mission was accomplished exactly because the peasants thought their stealing of potatoes was an unintended consequence.
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| Indian cobra (image source: Wikipedia) |
