17 July 2013

"Taken by Storm" Applies Equally to Cyclones and Crowdfunding

Crowdfunding thrives thanks to the Internet - just like inland tropical cyclones are energised by global warming.
George ILIEV

In 2007 a tropical storm named Erin took America by surprise. Cyclones usually weaken after making landfall but Erin defied the hurricane convention: it grew stronger over Texas and even formed an eye above Oklahoma. Since Erin, scientists have defined a new category of tropical cyclone: while the usual type derive their energy from the heated surface water of the ocean, this new tropical storm category derives its energy from evaporation of soil moisture (figuratively called "brown ocean"). NASA-funded research at the University of Georgia (USA) shows that rising global temperatures and increased humidity in some areas are making this unorthodox category of hurricanes not only possible but increasingly common.

In a similar way, the spread of the Internet and growing consumer wealth create "the perfect storm" that has made a new social phenomenon possible: crowdfunding. The conventional way of funding a project or business has always been through savings and bank loans or by selling shares on the stock market (analogous to the conventional view that the warm ocean feeds tropical cyclones). Crowdfunding projects are known to have existed in the past - e.g. for raising funding for the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty in the 1880s - but were never the norm. Crowd-sourced fundraising has taken off only after the Internet and consumer wealth became widespread. Microfinance platforms such as Kiva and creative micro-investment platforms such as Kickstarter are now making a significant impact worldwide. However, unlike the hurricanes, their impact is hugely positive.

16 July 2013

Physicists Compare Embryo Development and Cancer. What Connects Google with Enron?

Good and Bad Outcomes: Common in Evolution of Multicellular Organisms and Stock Markets
George ILIEV

Here is a daring double-barrelled hypothesis - among the most daring I have produced:
1. The evolution of multicellular organisms possibly leads to both good and bad outcomes: embryos and cancer, respectively.
2. Stock markets similarly sustain good and bad outcomes: Google and Enron.

A newly founded institution in Arizona called Center for the Convergence of Physical Science and Cancer Biology straddles the border between physics and astrophysics on the one side, and cancer research on the other. Two theoretical physicists and cosmologists are exploring a (yet unproven) hypothesis linking the origin of cancer to the evolution of multicellular organisms and the development of embryos. They assert that "genes that are active in the embryo and normally dormant thereafter are found to be switched back on in cancer. These same genes are the 'ancient' ones, deep in the tree of multicellular life." The researchers expect to find that "the more malignant stages of cancer will re-express genes from the earliest stages of embryogenesis".

A similar parallel is even more evident in the impact that stock market listings have on companies. For many, including leading "goodies" such as Google and Apple, a public listing has the beneficial effect of providing resources for growth and credibility for transacting in the business world. For others, such as Enron and WorldCom, the stock market created perverse incentives for top managers to cheat and lie.

To put it simply, one man's meat is another man's, ...eh, defeat.




13 July 2013

Quantum Physics Lends Strategies That Beat Classical Game Theory

Quantum Entanglement Is Firmly Entangled with Game Theory 
George ILIEV

Finally someone has produced a paper expressly for my blog. "Link Between Quantum Physics and Game Theory Found", published in Nature Communications, explores novel Nash Equilibria that beat the conventional Nash Equilibrium. Players in a Prisoner's Dilemma type of game who have access to using an entangled pair of quantum particles outperform classical players who are interrogated in full isolation from each other. If only Schrodinger's Cat could rise from the semi-dead and come out of its box to see that.








1 July 2013

On investment bankers and bird excrement: Read on, it's not what you think

Birds of a feather: Seed passage through bird digestion yields positive effects similar to stint at investment bank
George ILIEV

It is no secret that many young investment bankers (analysts, associates, even VPs) work 100-hour weeks. Why do they subject themselves to such inhumane treatment? An analogy between investment banks and bird digestive systems may reveal instructive similarities.

Capiscum (chili pepper) seeds eaten by the common South American flycatcher are four times more likely to germinate after passing through the bird's digestive system, a recent paper in Ecology Letters shows. This is based on two unrelated processes: the gut passage kills a pathogenic fungus that grows on the seeds and also scrubs the seeds of an odour that would otherwise attract seed-eating ants once the seed lands on the ground.

Working for an investment bank confers similar advantages: by exposing employees to extreme pressure, it makes them resilient and possibly more likely to succeed in future careers. By doing this, banks are not too much different from the Indonesian palm civet (cat) which increases the value of the coffee beans it devours and excretes, making this coffee one of the most-expensive varieties in the world.