Big Cities and Modern Democracies are like Cars: All three need regular maintenance

CorporateNature No 140

1. NEW YORK CITY AND THE “BROKEN WINDOWS” APPROACH

When crime rates in New York City skyrocketed in the 1980s and early 1990s, the local government launched a law enforcement campaign based on the “broken windows” theory. The idea is simple: when you reduce low-level offences such as graffiti, vandalism, loitering, and general public disorder, this creates the perception of a better urban environment, which in turn deters more serious crime. By the late 1990s, violent crime in New York City had dropped by a staggering 56%, compared to a drop of 28% in the US as a whole.

While there is no hard data on the size of the impact of the “broken windows” policy and although other factors such as economic growth played a key role in crime reduction, it seems that improved quality of life for New Yorkers translated into a more orderly society.

2. DEMOCRACIES AND WHAT MAKES THEM TICK

For a modern democratic country to function properly, it needs to implement fundamental principles such as rule of law, freedom of expression, pluralism, freedom of participation in the electoral process, etc. It takes time, effort and multiple iterations to set up such complex cultural and institutional constructs. Once we get them (somewhat) right, we must strive to keep them in good working order. Running a democracy is a continuous process which involves maintaining the overall structure and adjusting to the current times.

Analogous to the New York example, if we live in a democratic environment of sub-par quality, the cracks in the system would make true democracy difficult to maintain.

3. CITIES AND DEMOCRACIES REQUIRE "CAR MAINTENANCE"

Big cities and modern democracies are complex social machines. Your car is a less complicated machine, but its need for maintenance is not all that different.

A brand-new car is like the conceptual idea of a democracy that exists in theory: they are both in perfect working condition. However, as time passes and the car gets driven, it picks up small dents, it gets exposed to the elements, and its mechanisms start to deteriorate. Soon these minor issues add up and if there is no regular maintenance, it gets to a point where the car becomes a road safety concern.

Wouldn't it be better if we took care of the minor issues promptly, rather than wait for them to stack up and overwhelm the system?

Manhattan skyline (image source: Wikipedia) 

Human systems are rife with unintended consequences

CorporateNature No 129

As the name suggests, the sociological term “unintended consequences” refers to unforeseen  outcomes of purposeful actions. They occur in complex social systems due to the large number of variables involved in the functioning of these systems.

In the simplified world of Newtonian physics, for every action in nature, there is an equal and opposite reaction (Newton's 3rd Law of Motion). In such a system, outcomes are easy to predict.

In contrast, human social systems are complex, sometimes bordering on chaotic, so the action-reaction equation does not necessarily hold true. More often than not, there are unintended consequences.

A classic source of unintended consequences is the Peltzman Effect. The Peltzman Effect, or risk compensation, occurs after the implementation of safety measures intended to reduce injury or death (e.g. bike helmets, seat belts, etc.). While people may feel safer than they really are, they take additional risks which they would not have taken without the safety measures in place. This may result in an increase in mortality, rather than the decrease that was initially intended.

Here are some examples of the Peltzman Effect:

1. Anti-lock brakes

Anti-lock brakes were introduced in Germany in the late 1970s. Contrary to government expectations, instead of decreasing fatal car accidents by 10-15%, the drivers of cars fitted with anti-lock brakes became more likely to engage in risky driving. Studies found that drivers would trust their new braking technology too much and as a result would curves at a higher speed, which increased rollovers and accidents.

2. American football helmets 

Helmets became mandatory in American football in 1943 and the risk of injury was expected to go down. Indeed, the helmets decreased the number of broken noses, teeth and jaws. However, concussion and spinal injuries actually increased and broken necks saw a staggering rise by 400%. The reason for these counterintuitive statistics was the better protection that helmets gave to players, so the players actually started using the helmets as an offensive weapon, just like battering rams.

3. Airbags and children left in cars

Airbags are another pertinent example of the Peltzman Effect. Passenger-side airbags were intended to increase safety but actually started hurting and killing child passengers as children were vulnerable to being hit by a deploying airbag during a collision. This led to the child seat being moved to the back of cars, which in turn resulted in another unexpected consequence: an increase in the number of babies and children inadvertently left behind in locked vehicles.

1959 Volvo 122, the first mass-produced car with seatbelts as standard equipment
(image source: Wikipedia)