Unintended Consequences: Cobras, College Grades, Potato PR

CorporateNature No 130

There are two types of unintended consequences:
1) The long tail of a probability distribution of outcomes, when the rare outcome happens to occur.

2) A chain of events that creates its own loop of consequences.

The previous CorporateNature blog post (No 129) was about some unintended consequences that occur in complex environments such as our human social systems, including the Peltzman Effect of risk-seeking behaviour when one is feeling safe.

Continuing this topic, here are three more examples of unintended consequences:

1. The Cobra Effect

The Cobra Effect is a case when an intended solution to a problem exacerbates the problem. The name "cobra effect" comes from a story from colonial India. To solve the problem of the large population of venomous snakes in Delhi, the British colonial government set a bounty for each dead cobra. At first this strategy was successful, as many snakes were killed for the reward. However, soon people started breeding cobras to profit from turning them in to the local government. The government eventually noticed it was being taken for a ride and scrapped the reward programme. This made breeders release the cobras they had been breeding into the wild, which led to an increase in the cobra population.

2. The Vietnam War & Grade Inflation

In the US, during the era of the Vietnam War in the 1960s, students with high grades were exempted from the draft for the war (conscription). This meant that giving someone a low grade could send someone to war, and possibly cost their life. As a result, professors became much more hesitant to give someone a C and gravitated towards handing out higher grades.

3. Potato PR

Potatoes were domesticated in South America some 10,000 years ago and were introduced to Europe after the voyages of Columbus. However, local European farmers and peasants did not take to them. Appreciating the nutritious potential of this new plant, Prussian king Frederick the Great came up with a public relations stunt to convince people that potatoes are worth it. He had his servants plant a field of potatoes and stationed a heavy guard tasked with pretending to be guarding the field. Naturally, the local peasants assumed that the crop on the king's land must be valuable and started to sneak into the field and steal potatoes for their own gardens. This had exactly been Frederick's intention and the mission was accomplished exactly because the peasants thought their stealing of potatoes was an unintended consequence.

Indian cobra
(image source: Wikipedia)

Human systems are rife with unintended consequences

CorporateNature No 129

As the name suggests, the sociological term “unintended consequences” refers to unforeseen  outcomes of purposeful actions. They occur in complex social systems due to the large number of variables involved in the functioning of these systems.

In the simplified world of Newtonian physics, for every action in nature, there is an equal and opposite reaction (Newton's 3rd Law of Motion). In such a system, outcomes are easy to predict.

In contrast, human social systems are complex, sometimes bordering on chaotic, so the action-reaction equation does not necessarily hold true. More often than not, there are unintended consequences.

A classic source of unintended consequences is the Peltzman Effect. The Peltzman Effect, or risk compensation, occurs after the implementation of safety measures intended to reduce injury or death (e.g. bike helmets, seat belts, etc.). While people may feel safer than they really are, they take additional risks which they would not have taken without the safety measures in place. This may result in an increase in mortality, rather than the decrease that was initially intended.

Here are some examples of the Peltzman Effect:

1. Anti-lock brakes

Anti-lock brakes were introduced in Germany in the late 1970s. Contrary to government expectations, instead of decreasing fatal car accidents by 10-15%, the drivers of cars fitted with anti-lock brakes became more likely to engage in risky driving. Studies found that drivers would trust their new braking technology too much and as a result would curves at a higher speed, which increased rollovers and accidents.

2. American football helmets 

Helmets became mandatory in American football in 1943 and the risk of injury was expected to go down. Indeed, the helmets decreased the number of broken noses, teeth and jaws. However, concussion and spinal injuries actually increased and broken necks saw a staggering rise by 400%. The reason for these counterintuitive statistics was the better protection that helmets gave to players, so the players actually started using the helmets as an offensive weapon, just like battering rams.

3. Airbags and children left in cars

Airbags are another pertinent example of the Peltzman Effect. Passenger-side airbags were intended to increase safety but actually started hurting and killing child passengers as children were vulnerable to being hit by a deploying airbag during a collision. This led to the child seat being moved to the back of cars, which in turn resulted in another unexpected consequence: an increase in the number of babies and children inadvertently left behind in locked vehicles.

1959 Volvo 122, the first mass-produced car with seatbelts as standard equipment
(image source: Wikipedia)