Showing posts with label R&D. Show all posts
Showing posts with label R&D. Show all posts

15 April 2016

"Life after death" springs eternal in nature, science and the real economy

The death of an old tree leads to a spurt of growth of young saplings; The death of a leading scientist brings new names on stage.

"Science advances one death at a time" - Niels Bohr

By George ILIEV

The death of a tree in a forest opens up the canopy and allows young sapling access to sunlight.

A similar phenomenon has been proven to exist in the various branches of science, according to MIT research (In death, there is life: Big-name scientists may end up stifling progress in their fields, reported by The Economist). It turns out that "the death of a dominant mind in a field liberates others with different points of view to make their cases more freely". This positive effect is not the result of redistribution of research funding that may previously have been monopolised by the famous scientist. It is rather due to the attention of the scientific community that the established authority used to attract ("intellectual oxygen") and possibly the unwillingness of younger scientists to challenge the established authority. This supports a century-old quote by Physics Nobel Prize winner Niels Bohr: "Science advances one death at a time."

Thus, in the forests of science, it is not access to nutrients underground that spurs the outburst of new growth; it is the open space above.


A similar phenomenon exists in macroeconomics and was first observed by US economist Mancur Olson. He explained the post-war economic miracle in West Germany, Italy and Japan with the destruction of ossified socio-economic institutional hierarchies. A sharp institutional break (such as defeat in war and occupation by a foreign power) spurs economic growth by destroying the existing distribution coalitions, i.e. vested interests. But then several decades later, new distribution coalitions will have emerged and, in turn, would need to be reformed or destroyed to let the economy move forward.

The king is dead. Long live the king.

16 February 2015

Natural selection drove violin design in Renaissance Italy

Market pressure resembling natural selection forced unwitting Italian violin makers to lengthen their violin holes
By George ILIEV

Violin holes kept evolving in 16th-century northern Italy
Early Italian violin makers designed their instruments with a round hole in the middle. None of them knew that this was sub-optimal. Acoustics and sound resonance improve not by increasing the size of the hole but by lengthening the edge of the orifice, according to a study in the Proceedings of the Royal Society. Gradually, customer feedback influenced the workshops of the Stradivari and Guarneri families in Cremona during the Renaissance. Through trial and error they kept increasing the length of the hole's edge until we now have the optimal known design with a typical "f" shaped hole.

Market selection resembles natural selection
Interestingly, the feedback loop of the market closely resembled natural selection: a process entirely based on customers choosing violins that they perceived as having the best acoustics. This, rather than conscious R&D attempts by the makers to "fiddle" with the sound, made the producers prosperous and ensured that the successful designs would be passed down the next generation in the luthier's family.

Unwitting violin makers did not know the recipe for their own success
The producer of the violins with the best sound would simply be favoured by the buyers, even if the producers themselves didn't know why. Violin-making is a complex art of tweaking multiple variables, so the luthiers may have thought that the varnish or the strings they used made their product superb. Yet, in the end it all boiled down to the hole.
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Violin photo attribution: Wikimedia Commons

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